UFC 107 pre-fight analysis and predictions
With UFC 107 right around the corner, its time for the predictions to begin! As you may or may not already know, UFC 107 features a main event championship bout between all time great, lightweight champ BJ Penn and extremely motivated challenger Diego Sanchez. The card also features a bout between two fighters recently beaten by the main even competitors, in Clay Guida and Kenny Florian as well as an interesting clash of styles in Cheick Kongo Vs. frank Mir. Lets get right to it.
Clay Guida v. Kenny Florian(155)
In what seems like a must win for both fighters, it’s fairly hard to try and predict how this fight will look and what the outcome will be. Florian’s takedown defense will be central to how this fight pans out, as I don’t see Guida wanting to stand up with Florian for any prolonged amount of time. The past has shown Guida as a fighter that makes his opponents look bad even in defeat, however I can’t help but feeling that Florian will perform impressively and dominate him wherever the fight goes. If , and most likely when Guida gets Florian down I don’t see him being able to do much besides maybe score just by being on top. On the flip side, if Florian gets Guida down at any point I see him being able to score heavily and possibly even being able to finish the fight. There is also a very real possibility that Guida can get consistent takedowns and do just enough to win, but i don’t see him finishing. I think Kenny will be getting a rematch with Diego very soon =). Prediction: Florian By Submission (RNC) round 2
Frank Mir v. Cheick Kongo(265)
Let me start off by saying I think the outcome of this fight depends nearly 100 percent on information I don’t have, namely the quality of training Cheick Kongo is getting. If he prepares the right way and works on his takedown defense as much as he desperately needs to, he exposes Mir’s “world-class” standup. If he shows up in any way similar to the way he did in the Cain Velazquez fight, and gets taken down even once against Mir, he gets embarrassed. The ideal outcome for me would be for Kongo to finally fill the gaps in his game and to fight at his full potential and make an example out of Mir. I do however live in the real world and know that this fight will most likely have a very different outcome than what I hope. The thing is with this fight is that unlike his earlier outing against velazquez where it seesawed from standing to ground, If it goes down once it very well may be the last time. He might able to keep it standing and drop Mir, but what then? Will he get over-anxious and try to GNP? It’s hard to tell, but Kongo hasn’t proved any critics wrong yet, and even as a fan It’s hard to like his odds. Prediction: Mir via submission (Kimura) round 1
Jon Fitch v. Mike Pierce(170)
And the hardest call of them all… Not quite. Not much to really say here besides that I’d pick Fitch over the majority of welterweights in the UFC, and most definitely Pierce. Good to see the Jon Fitch taking on the top guys at welterweight once again. Prediction: Fitch via TKO round 2
Stefan Struve v. Paul Buentello(265)
Admittedly these aren’t the two fighters that I have the most knowledge on. However, It’s obviously in Buentello’s interest to keep the fight standing. Struve’s best chance lies on him working on the ground, but it will be hard to get the fight there unless he puts some bulk on his long lanky frame. Struve’s boxing has looked slow and unresponsive at times, so if Buentello can come out aggressive I can see him putting Struve’s lights off. prediction: Buentello via TKO round 1
BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez (155) Title fight
Boy am I going to enjoy this fight, because it will be the only UFC title fight for quite a while. Regardless of the title implications, I’ve got a feeling this fight is going to be one you won’t want to miss. A heavy-handed, newly dedicated champion vs. a hungry, motivated and dangerous challenger. With all the other champs out of commission, If this fight turns out bad I think it will be confirmed that the MMA gods have become displeased with Dana White and the UFC. all nonsense aside this fight will come down to several things, the most important of which is BJ’s conditioning. arguably BJ has the advantage both standing and on the ground, not to mention the fact that he can without a doubt stop Diego’s takedowns. The question is however, how long can he stay ahead of Diego in these aspects? As a fan, I dread the thought of this fight seeing BJ gas and get outpaced and perhaps even finished by Diego. What allows me to sleep at night is knowing that BJ has the edge in experience, and that he will feel no pressure coming into this fight and will likely come in well prepared for the pace Diego is going to bring. BJ is taking this fight very seriously, bringing in the right training partners and preparing for the right scenarios for this fight. Diego is a great opponent, but BJ will be prepared and will come to this fight relaxed and with no pressure. prediction: Penn via TKO (strikes) round 3
That just about wraps it up, i hope you enjoyed my first (and by default best) UFC card breakdown of them all! hope I helped a few people pry out their wallets and throw some change on these fights. Enjoy the card folks, and have a great weekend!